By Martin Kelly, Travel Trends

TOURISM forecasting is among the toughest gigs around with the industry exceptionally vulnerable just about every type of external shock – since 1989 think pilot’s strike, Asian financial crisis, 9/11 and SARS.

It’s no surprise then that the Tourism Forecasting Council admits there’s a strong possibility of at least one major external shock over the next 10 years while two external shocks in the ensuing decade is also feasible.

What impact would they have? Significant but the industry would continue growing, though more slowly.

Long-term annual growth rates would fall from a base case of 4.8% over the next 10 years to 4.2% (one shock) or 3.1% (two shock).

One Shock Scenario: “If an external shock occurred in 2010 that reduced arrivals by 1.5% (a similar outcome to the fall in 2001 that was mainly driven by the 9/11 terrorist attacks) … there would be 6% fewer arrivals in 2016 compared with the base case.”

Two Shock Scenario: “”There would be over one million (or 12%) fewer arrivals in 2016 compared with the base case.”

Travel Trends: December 17, 2007

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