Dean Dransfield headshotThe next two years will feature better growth for Australia’s major accommodation markets after a relatively sedate 2012 during which room rates did not grow as much as anticipated, according to analyst Dean Deansfield.

“Revenue per available room for 2012 is forecast to grow by a healthy 3.8% despite the under-performance of Sydney and Melbourne,” Mr Dransfield says.

Sydney in particular has been a disappointment with 2012 REVpar growth of just 2.9% compared with 7.1% last year.

“This forecast represents a downgrade from the 6.1% expected (and) is a result of weaker than expected rate growth (but) occupancies remain a very healthy 76.7%.”

The best performers in 2012 were Perth (10.7%) and Darwin (10.9%).

Over the next two he expects annual national REVpar growth to be in the region of 5.2%.

Darwin (7.1%), Perth (6.2%), Cairns (6.4%), Gold Cost (6.4%) and Sydney will be the strongest performers.

Much slower growth is forecast in Adelaide (1.5%), Canberra (3%)and Hobart (2.7%).

Looking ahead to 2020, Mr Dransfield anticipates annual REVpar growth of 3.8%.

In terms of supply, he says “development activity is set to build over the coming four years, after 11 years of sub 3% annual growth.

“The next supply peak is expected through 2016-17 (while) continued growth in visitor numbers from key markets underpins achieving long term demand.”


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