When Flight Centre announces its half-yearly results on Feb 24, sure as night follows day the retailer will be asked about the falling Aussie dollar and its impact on outbound travel.

Equally certain will be Flight Centre’s response – they have decoupled, there is no correlation.

But others are not so sure.

“FLT is always at pains to disprove that changes in currency have an impact showing that leisure sales from Australia to the US have grown at a faster rate than overall ticket growth in Australia and that domestic tickets as a proportion of total tickets in Australia has remained the same,” says investment bank JP Morgan.

“Whilst we think this fear is generally overplayed and the reasons causing the shift in the currency are more important, we concede that the correlation between the currency and departures for holiday purposes a year later, appears to be ~52% which is fairly high.”

And here is the chart to prove it…

Graph - correlation between AUD and outbound travel

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